
作者:戏北丁杜 来源:原创 发布日期:08-25

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B | Last week, Israel's parliament voted to dissolve itself after the ruling Bloc of Change coalition had lost its paper-thin majority. Lapid, who served as the foreign minister in Bennett's cabinet and is also the leader of the largest opposition party Yesh Atid, assumed the office of prime minister until the next parliamentary elections scheduled for November. This will be the country's fifth snap vote in under four years.,The previous one took place in March 2021 after the parliament had dissolved itself due to the failure to adopt a state budget by the deadline. It ended with Lapid forming a coalition agreement with Bennett, who leads the right-wing Yamina political alliance, entailing a rotational two-year premiership.,Unique Coalition,The coalition created by Bennett and Lapid was the most diverse in Israel's history, consisting of parties that run the gamut from right to left, religious to secular, and even included an Arab party, the United Arab List (also known as Ra'am). Other coalition members included Yesh Atid, Yamina, Blue and White, Yisrael Beiteinu, New Hope, Labor and Meretz.,The coalition's diversity is explained by the shared desire to prevent Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the right-wing Likud party and a former prime minister, from once again taking power. However, the variety of political forces presented in the coalition also made it hard to sustain.,"The effort and the energy that were invested in maintaining the coalition government throughout this year actually exhausted the government and the people at the top, and they couldn’t really deal with certain issues that could have given them credit were they successful in surviving until the next elections," Tamar Hermann, a professor of political science at the Open University of Israel and academic director of the Viterbi Family Center for Public Opinion and Policy Research at the Israel Democracy Institute, said.,According to Itzhak Galnoor, a senior research fellow at the Van Leer Jerusalem Institute and emeritus Herbert Samuel professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, the Bennett-Lapid government should have invested much more effort in keeping the alliance together, which they failed to do.,"It was an attempt to save Israeli democracy, prevent corruption, show that a government can function without all those tricks and things that the Netanyahu government was notable for doing for many years. In this way, I mean the second part, they actually did succeed for a while. So, the main failure, as I said, was the problem of maintaining some politicians within the parties who knew exactly what they were getting into. It wasn’t just that the whole experiment was a failure, it was more of a personal thing," Galnoor said.,The expert also suggested that if the Arab political alliance Joint List, which was not part of the ruling coalition, had given its support to the government and overcome the personal animosity between them and the United Arab List then the coalition would have survived.,"So, it is difficult to say more than we have now personification of politics, which makes it very difficult to have a coalition and it does not matter even if we may have ten elections," Galnoor surmised.,Meanwhile, Liron Lavi, a lecturer and research fellow at the UCLA Y&S Nazarian Center for Israel Studies, drew attention to the changes in the Israeli political spectrum.,"'Right' and 'Left' are much less about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict- the main issue that has defined Israeli politics since 1967. Instead, the political axis in Israel is being re-shaped around issues of the state's Jewish identity and democracy," she stated, adding that "in light of this change, and until the political axis will be redefined and parties will realign themselves along it, we are expected to see more political instability in Israel in the near future.",Time for Change,The series of snap elections has revealed the issues with Israel's current electoral system, in which parliamentary seats are proportionally divided between parties and a ruling coalition must secure 61 seats in order to form a government. However, creation of a stable political coalition out of sprawling factions has become a daunting task. At the same time, parties are currently the least trusted political organizations in Israel, with people often having little idea what is the real difference between them, according to Hermann.,"Many parties do not even have platforms, so people vote by identification based on, as I said, the level of religiosity and past experience," Hermann explained. "The parties are, in a way, obsolete, but we don’t have any alternative channel for choosing the candidates for the national elections, so if the electoral system is changed, probably the parties will have to adapt and maybe become more relevant.",Galnoor, for his part, underscored the need to make sure the country has a stable government and ruling coalition, noting that the Israeli Democracy Institute suggested the following changes to the country's parliamentary system: making the head of the biggest party after the election the prime minister by default so they could form a governing coalition as well as introducing mixed elections, with some lawmakers representing geographic constituencies instead of being voted on via party lists.,"You have, let’s say, a member of the Knesset [who] represents the Negev, the south, he would have to represent all the people in the south. It would be Jewish and Arab and it would be Orthodox and non-Orthodox, so you would have a representative, a member of the Knesset, that cuts across the differences in society," the expert outlined the idea.,Shmuel Sandler, the professor emeritus of political science at Bar-Ilan University and a senior research fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies also called for electoral reform and hoped that a coalition without Netanyahu might implement it.,"He would try to go for a reform in which the head of the largest party is also elected as PM. But this does not assure stability," Sandler noted.。
影响不大的主要原因就是之前对中国电动汽车征收的25%的关税,使得原本中国对美国出口就很少。去年中国向美国出口了大约3.7亿美元的电动车,欧盟向美国出口了近 75 亿美元。中国仅占美国进口电动汽车的2%。德国、韩国和日本的占比分别为22%、21%和18%。
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采取加征关税减少竞争的方法来保护电动汽车,只会让美国汽车制造商进步缓慢。而且美国现在严重依赖中国生产的电池,加征关税只会使得整车成本更贵,美国想买电动车的老百姓就只能支付更高价格了。在海外市场,中国电动车都可以凭借价格和技术取胜。美国车将一步步被边缘化,美国新能源产业会越来越落后。2020年大选,拜登猛烈抨击特朗普向中国3000亿美元进口商品的征税,严重伤害了美国,因为95%以上的关税都是由美国企业和家庭承担的。但拜登上任后,继承了这些关税,目的就是遏制中国的发展。而这一次加税主要目的是讨好摇摆州的选民。最新民调显示拜登在六个摇摆州的五个都落后特朗普。但是特朗普上台后,大概率会向所有国家加征关税,而且主要是针对中国。
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这几年贸易战打下来,美国经济学家都一致反对,新研究显示过去中美贸易顺畅时,美国家庭和企业都直接受惠,贸易战让大家直接受伤。即使是过去声称中国商品造成美国制造业工人失业的经济学家,也完全改变了态度。拜登加征关税的行为,也引来了IMF发言人Julie Kozack的批评。她表示,美国针对中国的贸易限制措施可能会扭曲贸易和投资,使得供应链碎片化并引发报复行动。她说:“这种碎片化可能会让全球经济付出高昂的代价。
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IMF确定2023年全球贸易限制约为3000项,高于2019年的1000项,在地缘政治集团严重分裂的最坏情况下,这可能会使全球经济产出减少约7%,相当于减少了日本和德国GDP的总和。
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Published on:04:07:28